Wood Mackenzie, the world’s leading energy information agency, expects Indian oil demand to grow faster than China in 2019.
The agency’s energy analyst Aman Verma said that in 2018, India’s oil demand growth rate is about 250,000 barrels / day, and it is expected that the growth rate in 2019 is likely to continue. According to this trend, in 2019, India’s oil demand will surpass China and become the world’s second largest oil demander after the United States.
So the question is: Why is India’s oil demand growing so fast?
In this regard, Wood Mackenzie said that there are mainly the following factors:
1. In 2018, 14% of global crude oil demand growth came from India. In the context of strong commercial vehicle sales, transportation fuel is the biggest factor in the increase in Indian oil use!
2. India’s streamlined sales tax structure is also a factor;
3. The upcoming Indian election in 2019 will also be a major factor in boosting oil demand.
So how much is the demand for oil in India?
Wood McKenzie said that in 2018, India’s average daily crude oil consumption exceeded 4 million barrels.
At the same time, Yi Niu Finance also noted that not only Wood Mackenzie is optimistic about India’s future oil demand, including BP, OPEC, etc., to see:
1. According to BP’s “Energy Outlook 2018″ report, in the future, India’s oil imports will increase by 175%, accounting for 65% of energy import growth. It is estimated that in 2040, India’s oil consumption is 10 million per day. Barrel (about 500 million tons)
2. The 2018 World Petroleum Outlook published by OPEC predicts that India will be the country with the largest increase in oil demand and the fastest growth before 2040. Finally, OPEC also said that India will see the largest demand of 5.8 million barrels per day, and may even break through the 10 million barrels per day barrier at the end of the forecast period.
India’s oil demand also has a headwind factor?
As above, although the demand for oil in India was stimulated by many factors in 2019, there are still some headwind factors in the future demand for Indian oil, the most important of which is the fluctuation of international crude oil prices.
As mentioned by Niu Caijing, in 2018, the rapid rise in oil prices finally prompted the Indian Energy Minister to call on oil-producing countries to withdraw their production reduction agreements. After all, up to 80% of India’s oil consumption is dependent on imports.
However, the potential negative impact of this factor on the overall demand for crude oil will be limited! Although the rise in oil prices has curbed India’s demand for new cars, thereby curbing fuel consumption, the Indian middle class is growing, which will partially offset the negative impact.
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Post time: Apr-25-2019